Tropical Depression #4…08/23/2014

TD 4One of the reasons I write this blog, is because I enjoy how the weather works. I grew up wanting to be a tornado chaser, and experience a hurricane. When we run into a rather hum-drum tropical season, and I happen to be paying attention, then I write about it. So the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center looked interesting with the TD 4 going from meandering  in the Bahamas to a hurricane in a couple days time, I took note. So go to the links and read up. There are some tropical bloggers/YouTubers that I follow, and if they put anything else tonight, I’ll post links/videos to them.

The places that I look at stuff, besides NHC are:

Thunderstorms in the next 24 hours…08/15/2014

wsAPX-08-15-14am

I haven’t posted in a while, partly because there hasn’t been much to talk about. There was that day when we had rain and hail here at my house (see my Instagram stream to the right), but otherwise, not much has gone on this summer.

So, does the fact that I’m writing anything mean something is coming? Well, not really, but I thought what will come up will be of some note, and I really need to keep the blogging mind going.

To start with, if you look to the left you see the weather story graphic from the office which shows a cold front moving through the Upper Great Lakes. However as noted from the morning Hazardous Weather Briefing, no severe weather is expected. By the afternoon, SPC issued a “See Text” for the overnight for Upper Michigan.

…UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT…
A MODESTLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT…POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA. WHILE SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR WARRANTED…A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WIND FIELD.

Therefore, watch for the thunderstorms tonight. They probably won’t do a lot, but wind could be an issue in an isolated cell. The thing to watch out for, from the office’s perspective, is heavy rain.

wsAPX-08-15-14pmTo the left is the Weather Story graphic from this afternoon. The rainfall in the next 24 hours shows that up to an inch is expected in the eastern parts of Chippewa and Mackinac counties.

 

What do you mean, “Slight Risk?”

jeff2s2lutz:

Here are some thoughts to the general public about the differences in the categories for the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Sean is Chief Meteorologist at a TV Station in the Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA area, and also a former roommate of mine from what seems ages ago.

Originally posted on The Show:

The levels of severe (damaging) thunderstorm and/or tornado risk may mean one thing to a meteorologist… but another to the general public.  When you hear “Slight risk of severe thunderstorms or tornadoes,” it has a more ominous connotation than you may think.

There are three levels of risk.  The official definitions from the Storm Prediction Center website:

Slight Risk implies that well-organized severe thunderstorms (or tornadoes) are expected but in relatively small numbers/coverage, or a small chance of a more significant severe event. Not all severe storm events will be covered with a Slight Risk, especially during the summer when short-lived, “pulse-type” severe storms are relatively common during the afternoon.

Moderate Risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a Slight Risk. A Moderate Risk is usually reserved for days with…

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