Well provided that we don’t have some mid fall warming (i.e. “Indian Summer”) Our temperatures for the upcoming week are going to be below normal. Looking at the Gaylord forecast, the high temperatures are as follows:
- Today 52
- Friday: 53
- Saturday: 55
- Sunday: 59
- Monday: 61
- Tuesday: 62
- Wednesday: 62
And looking at the 8-14 day Outlook from CPC, temperatures will remain below normal. After the business of the last 2 weeks at the office, I’m ready for some more routine weather, although I would prefer it to be a little warmer.
If you have been hearing about another round of severe weather, there is a chance. To the left is the office weather story graphic from today. So while I was looking up what was expected overnight, a few new graphics showed up from SPC. The office graphics are still good, looking at the SPC graphics, but SPC does looks like they have fine tuned the ideas.
First, looking at the latest Day1 Convective outlook, the basic idea is still there.
The thing that really struck me was the Thunderstorm outlook that is good from midnight until 8am. It shows that the 40% area just gets to North West Lower Michigan and the rest of Northern Lower and Eastern Upper. Here is that graphic.
What we will have to watch overnight, will be the movement of the storms in Wisconsin where the greatest threat for thunderstorms are. In fact, just as I started to put this together, a new watch box for that area. That’s where we stand tonight. Maybe something in the morning. We will have to watch. Of course, I have to go to bed now. I’m back at work at 700 am.
One of the reasons I write this blog, is because I enjoy how the weather works. I grew up wanting to be a tornado chaser, and experience a hurricane. When we run into a rather hum-drum tropical season, and I happen to be paying attention, then I write about it. So the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center looked interesting with the TD 4 going from meandering in the Bahamas to a hurricane in a couple days time, I took note. So go to the links and read up. There are some tropical bloggers/YouTubers that I follow, and if they put anything else tonight, I’ll post links/videos to them.
The places that I look at stuff, besides NHC are:
I haven’t posted in a while, partly because there hasn’t been much to talk about. There was that day when we had rain and hail here at my house (see my Instagram stream to the right), but otherwise, not much has gone on this summer.
So, does the fact that I’m writing anything mean something is coming? Well, not really, but I thought what will come up will be of some note, and I really need to keep the blogging mind going.
To start with, if you look to the left you see the weather story graphic from the office which shows a cold front moving through the Upper Great Lakes. However as noted from the morning Hazardous Weather Briefing, no severe weather is expected. By the afternoon, SPC issued a “See Text” for the overnight for Upper Michigan.
…UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT…
A MODESTLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT…POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA. WHILE SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR WARRANTED…A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WIND FIELD.
Therefore, watch for the thunderstorms tonight. They probably won’t do a lot, but wind could be an issue in an isolated cell. The thing to watch out for, from the office’s perspective, is heavy rain.
To the left is the Weather Story graphic from this afternoon. The rainfall in the next 24 hours shows that up to an inch is expected in the eastern parts of Chippewa and Mackinac counties.
This storm off my back porch.
The thunder storms are moving east. With this movement, we will probably miss the severe thunderstorms, especially since the severe thunderstorm watching Wisconsin and Illinois is a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) watch. That may take our energy for severe convection.