Here’s the radar at 445pm for the current watch. I’m currently getting ready for work, and I have a few minutes to tell you what I know.
- It’s a SEVERE Thunderstorm watch, with the risk for winds greater than 60 mph and damaging hail.
- There is a low chance (less than 10% chance) for a tornado.
- Main threats are winds (typical for northern Michigan) and hail.
- Instability is limited, so the storms to watch for are isolated storms ahead of the line where the instability can spike up.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets going in our office’s area near M-55 and areas east of I-75. After that, the instability will begin to deflate as we pass the heat of the day, which is now(500pm) while I write this.
Things here have been semi-active, with a few weather things that have happened while I was working. Just remember, that if I am working, I can’t always get to my blog to get things written. I’m hoping to do some video, harking back to the days when I was podcasting this. It won’t be regular, but it will happen. Also, I have found a site that does some excellent tropical analysis, and hope to start sharing that as well, especially once we get into hurricane season. I can’t always keep up with the severe weather going on in other parts of the country, it can get a bit overwhelming with my schedule, but will get some of my links updated for anyone to follow the severe season. So for now, keep hoping that I can get a break and really get some weather here to write about.
Here’s the Lake effect snow. As the system that gave us light precipitation on and off the last few days, the last day as the system pulls east, is now adding lake effect snow bands in the synoptic snow. That’s why you see the green bands (lake effect) crossing the darker blue bands (synoptic snow with the low). This typically means that someone, by the end of the day will “hit the jackpot.” Right now, Gaylord is getting some good snow since about 11am…The picture to the right is out my front window with the large flakes of Lake Effect snow dumping down on us. I’m not looking forward to shoveling since my snowblower took a dump on me again.
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Here’s the latest from the office with this storm…
Quiet weather continues tonight into Sunday, with low cloud cover spreading into the region. A little light snow will fall Sunday night, mainly in areas north of M-32 into eastern upper Michigan, before a strong low pressure takes aim on the region into midweek. That storm will bring mild temperatures and rain Monday night into Wednesday, changing to snow Christmas Eve into Christmas morning, as windy conditions develop and temperatures fall. Hazardous travel is possible Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
So we watch and wait. This storm is looking interesting and looks like the European model (ECMWF) is winning out on the possible track. I’ll have more tomorrow after church.
While I was working on my last string of nights, I noticed a storm that was to move through Southern Lower Michigan around Christmas. Well, that was 3 days ago, and now it is looking like something to pay attention to. The problem a few days ago is the same problem now, a consensus between the models for the track to show the evolution of this system. That’s the problem with strong storms and the models, there is enough going on in the storms to throw the track off that the models don’t pick up in the longer term. I typically tell people I don’t put much stock in my own forecasts out through day 3 (72-84 hours), just because the models can come in with something completely different by the next model run in 12 hours.
So with this storm and the potential impact on the Christmas holiday, it’s time to start following it. So here is the storm track for the morning of December 24th. The storm should begin to make a turn to the northeast by this time. If this track is right then it would be snow. I looked at the GFS for the same time, and it looks more west, which would put us into rain before it changes over on Christmas Day.
I also looked at the CIPS Analog Threat guidance, and it shows that when we have a storm that looks like this one we typically run a 50/50 chance in northern Michigan of 6″ or greater of snow fall.
So the main thing is to watch this storm. The track will determine who gets snow and who doesn’t.
I know that I have been gone for a while. Most of it has to do with the season, both for work and personally. In the midst of the latest bout of snow that Northern Michigan just had, I was working, so I didn’t get a chance to blog this. I try to get to these things when I can. So with that in mind, here we go with the next storm…
First off, we had a few records that fell for snow fall with the two lake effect events that pushed through northern Michigan. Both were very similar with cold air entrenched in the Upper Great Lakes producing lake effect snow before the cold front then the snow with the front, and finally the west to northwest flow that came in off of Lakes Michigan and Superior. We had one of our busier Novembers that I can remember and I have been at this office for 15+ years. As I said cold air was entrenched, and the last that I saw we were, for the city of Gaylord, having the coldest November on record. This set us up for this one-two punch of snow that has now put most of the Northwest and North Central Lower, and East Upper Michigan into the most snow for November. The only consolation to this snow is that it has been rather fluffy with 20″ to 1″ snow to water ratios. This means that moving it by shovel has been less than if it had been 18 inches of system snow with its 10″ to 1″ ratio.
This brings us up to what happened. Now, we will discuss what is to happen over the weekend, and while rain sounds good, it does have its problems.
The first problem is that the cold air will remain in the region through the night, and into early Saturday morning, and with the increasing moisture, and forced upward into the highland of Northern Michigan, there will be drizzle, and with the temperatures still below 32°F we will have freezing drizzle. There is some expected accumulation of ice, so there has been a Freezing Rain Advisory (ice accumulations<0.25″). This will cause problems through the night as the Advisory is in affect from 1 am to 7 am Saturday.
After that there will be a break, it looks like there will be just regular drizzle through the day and Saturday night. However, then the system developing in the Southern Plains will move into the Upper Great Lakes, and bring rain Sunday through Monday morning. The problem will be that the rain will melt the snow and it is looking like the amount of rain will be significant. This will be a system to watch. I’ll bring more through the weekend.