Looking at the map this morning (I work this afternoon, and it’s easier if I do it at home.), I have a lot going on. The brown is my nephanalysis (Where the most continuous clouds are). Green are the dewpoints every 5°F, and I have everything greater than 65°F shaded. I then added that spicy brown mustard shade for the smoke, which is mostly aloft.
Last night when I did this, and then created a smoke graphic for social media (office Twitter Facebook) at the office (see my previous post) some people claimed they smelled the smoke, and it wasn’t even in the UP yesterday. Very unlikely, unless there was a fire nearby, since the surface winds are out of the south. The smoke is moving in from the north. So the smoke that is creating most of the haze today is aloft.
To show this, here are the graphics that I use from home. The first is the “True Color” from the College of DuPage weather site.
The swirl up the east coast is the remnants of Fred that came ashore yesterday in the panhandle of Florida. The smoke just north of the UP is best visible in the early morning as the sun’s rays are oblique to the atmosphere. It looks like the smoke is fading, but it’s not.
This is the vertically integrated smoke product from the HRRR on the NCEP website at the time I did my analysis (15z 11am EDT).
So, the smoke is creeping into the UP, and is expected to move into the rest of northern Michigan by tomorrow (Thu/08/19/21).
10/28 – As mentioned in the previous post, the cold front began to form waves of low pressure along it. As they moved from south to north, they would bring more moisture. In this case, more light rain and drizzle. Temperatures remain warm enough that no snow fell during the day.
10/29 – We begin the march of the Alberta Clippers, which seems to really usher our winter. Of course, they aren’t the only lows we get, but they are the main low pressure systems that seem to affect us. So the clipper on the map, that is moving from NW Ontario, into Lake Superior helps to push the stalled front that has been over us for a couple of days east by the evening. High pressure then built into the region and cooled things off.
10/31 – So the snow that we got by the morning remained as we stayed in the cold side of the low pressure as it moved up into Lake Erie, and on into New England. This brought snow across northern Michigan, mainly in northern lower Michigan. While the snow map on the morning of the 1st is snow depth, it was pretty much the snow we got from the night of the 10/31.
11/1 – As the system from the day before left, the high pressure built into the region and lake effect snow continued, in some areas. Snow, overnight, wasn’t as big of of a deal as the warmer air during the day began to melt the 3-5″ from the night before, so that there were bare patches around the region, and roads were just wet.
11/2 – The rain/snow mix in the morning began to quickly diminish as the colder air began to move into the region. By the afternoon, a lot of the snow on the ground had disappeared. However, the air mass began to get colder, and the fetch over the Great Lakes began to lengthen. This lead to some decent lake effect bands that produced some significant amounts in the area, that in the office we call, “
11/3 -The winds began to veer through the morning from west to northwest, and we headed into our first real lake effects snow period. We did have some locations mix with rain, but overall, we got snow bands in eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan.
10/22 – During the morning, the dry slot moved over the region and even cleared the sky out for a time. At 530 am, when I arrived home from my night shift, I could see the stars overhead. However, the winds were already picking up again.
10/23 – The winds continued to gust to gale force on Lake Michigan in the morning. By the end of the day, the winds had diminished. However, the rain didn’t stop as lake effect rain showers continued into the afternoon. And just when you thought the rain was done, a wave moved up the front, and produced more rain over the region. Although, most didn’t fall in Gaylord.
10/24 – After the cold front went through the state, high pressure built in the state and the weather dried out. Temperatures warmed up a bit.
10/25 – The High pressure remained for another day, but things began to cloud up, as the next system started to move out of the Gulf Coast and north into Southern Plains. Not as warm, because of the clouds.
10/27 – By the morning of the 27th, the now extratropical low was occluding and beginning to move on. High pressure built into the region and the cold front to the west began to form waves on it, as an area of low pressure at 500 mb(~18,000ft) was developing over the Rockies. As the upper low moved out, the cold front began to slowly move to the east and into Michigan. The precipitation was mainly light rain from the morning of the 27th.
10/17 – The drier air finally won out by late in the day. The rain was light as is most lake effect rains. Eventually, there were some breaks in the clouds late, and the sky cleared overnight. 
10/19 – As the high retreated to the east, the warm air continued to move into the region, and brought us to above normal temperatures, approaching 60°. However, the cold front moved into the region, and brought a little rain to northern Michigan. 
10/20 – The cold front moves through northern Michigan in the morning, The front was rather dry, as little rain fall with it. When it went through. High pressure then quickly built in and the sky cleared out. Temperatures again were above normal. 
