Hey! I have a few days off, if you don’t count the 4am shift I have to work tonight, and there will be a storm! I think I can blog.
Temperatures around northwest Michigan have already fallen enough for all snow as we are getting a few flakes here in Gaylord. This will continue into night, as the temperatures at 5000 feet come tumbling down as well. Remember that the temperature at 5000 feet (okay really 850 mb, but not everyone understands what pressure levels are) is important to watch for lake effect/enhanced snow events. Water temperatures are still on the warm side, but with this extra chilly air (-10°c at ~5000 ft), most of the temperature profile in the lower atmosphere should support all snow, and not a mix.
So when I left the office this morning, the track of the low was a little more north, and as the European model coming in was more south. When I woke up, the (18z)GFS was almost to where the Euro was at 00z was. So, I was not surprised when I saw that the amounts have been steadily getting lower for our area. There is only one thing that could upset the amounts, and that’s the lake enhancement wild card. The wind flow will be north or north-northwest as the low moves along the Ohio border, which would cause one of two flow patterns.
That could have implications for the west side of the state getting more snow than we think because of the lake enhancement. This has happened before. The other part is the NE flow that is not as prevalent, so I don’t have any graphics for it, but to say the least, there is a chance that some of the Lake Huron shore counties could get a few more inches if things set up right as the low goes by to the south.
However, for now, the forecast looks like this…
So with that, I leave to prepared for our first significant snow of the season. By the end of the winter this will seem like a cake walk.
Here’s the color commute from Boyne Falls, to Gaylord. There is more color here in Gaylord, than in the low lands of Charlevoix and Antrim counties. This is pretty typical… (Music —Pop Metal by Audionautix is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) Artist: http://audionautix.com/)
Yea! I remembered to do this!
On the way into work this morning, I noticed some color. We are probably about a week or two out from peak. So I remembered that last year, I did color commutes. I’ll resume those again and post them on my Northern Michigan Recreational Weather blog.
It looks like we transitioned back to the pattern we’ve had this year. It looks good, but no cigar, because of…
That’s what happened again today. They called me in on my day off, and I watched 15,000 to 30,000 ft storms form and die, and mush together into a couple rain masses. Nothing particularly interesting with these storms, except the two that merged and we put a tornado warning out on. The emergency manager for one of the counties said that they had some power outages, but no confirmed funnels or tornadoes. So the severe thunderstorm probably, but a tornado? Probably not. So nothing much to watch. I was cut loose around 5pm as the new shift came in and it looked like the day was going to turn out to be a dud.
Here’s the low down on severe weather today…
We have a cold front that will move through the Upper Great Lakes today. It looks like it will come through northern Michigan during the afternoon or peak heating. This has been the next best set up since the wind event 10 days ago.
Will it be as severe? Possibly, but not likely. The best severe weather producer will be straight lined winds. There is a small chance for tornadoes. Reading the SPC discussion, the things working against us is the cloud cover, and that the thunder yesterday and last night have lowered the lapse rates in the mid levels of the atmosphere. So thunderstorms are likely, but there is only a chance of severe.
Here are some aerial photographs and videos from the Coast Guard Air Station in Traverse City…