I’m not making fun of the convection as we say in the office, but it seems that since 2007 we have had a dearth of severe weather in northern Michigan (That’s another post). I now have a saying that if SPC has an outlook for northern Michigan, reduce the categories by one (based on what has happened during the last 8 years. So with that considered, the marginal/slight risk we have for tomorrow(Friday), and a little of the area on Saturday, it looks like there will be thunderstorms, probably some isolated severe, in the slight area, and general thunderstorms in the marginal area.
The one thing about the Sunday outlook in the bottom right part of the picture is that those could have a slight risk as we typically get the thunderstorms that roll south of M-55 which do end up severe. The timing looks like Saturday night based on the Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks and from what the office is saying in it’s graphic. So for those of you at Alpenfest in Gaylord, you will probably finish out the festival before the thunderstorms roll in. It will be the tear down crews that may have t-storms move in on them. Based on the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the office, the type of storm, is mainly wind.
Does that mean we won’t have severe thunderstorms? No. There is a chance, but based on how the last 8 years have turned out, I wouldn’t be surprised. So keep an eye on the weather tomorrow night, especially with so much moisture in the air, and the heat expected ahead of the cold front. Here’s what the map will look like at 8pm tomorrow night:
So this is something to watch out for.
I have a few minutes, so I thought I would do as I used to in the past, and give the weekend outlook. The graphic is a copy of the icon that is used for a sunny day off the 7-day forecast from the NWS’s forecast.weather.gov site. This pretty much sums up the idea of the weather for the next several days. Sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s around northern Michigan. High pressure will sit over the region through the weekend. So pretty much beach weather is expected.
Saturday Morning Forecast Map
The only thing is that you might want to try an inland lake as the water temperatures at the surrounding Great Lakes are 60˚ to 65˚F. Unless you wear a wet suit.
Although boating this weekend should be fun, even on the Great Lakes as the winds will be light and waves less than a foot.
Keep the sunscreen handy if you are at any festivals this weekend. There will be a lot of burned people.
As a side note, I may begin to record these again, and create a podcast. If I do, it will be on YouTube as I can have it host them, and I have the ability to work with audio and video.
Things are looking healthy for the system that is supposed to bring the severe thunderstorms. This is the latest from SPC. If I get a chance tomorrow morning, I’ll send the one out that is done overnight.
We could get some severe thunderstorms on Monday. There is no guarantee, I joke a work that SPC should have formula that says, if northern Michigan, then lower by one category. At least that seems to be the trend of the last 8 years. None the less, it is an interesting set up.
Here’s the radar at 445pm for the current watch. I’m currently getting ready for work, and I have a few minutes to tell you what I know.
- It’s a SEVERE Thunderstorm watch, with the risk for winds greater than 60 mph and damaging hail.
- There is a low chance (less than 10% chance) for a tornado.
- Main threats are winds (typical for northern Michigan) and hail.
- Instability is limited, so the storms to watch for are isolated storms ahead of the line where the instability can spike up.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets going in our office’s area near M-55 and areas east of I-75. After that, the instability will begin to deflate as we pass the heat of the day, which is now(500pm) while I write this.
Things here have been semi-active, with a few weather things that have happened while I was working. Just remember, that if I am working, I can’t always get to my blog to get things written. I’m hoping to do some video, harking back to the days when I was podcasting this. It won’t be regular, but it will happen. Also, I have found a site that does some excellent tropical analysis, and hope to start sharing that as well, especially once we get into hurricane season. I can’t always keep up with the severe weather going on in other parts of the country, it can get a bit overwhelming with my schedule, but will get some of my links updated for anyone to follow the severe season. So for now, keep hoping that I can get a break and really get some weather here to write about.
Here’s the Lake effect snow. As the system that gave us light precipitation on and off the last few days, the last day as the system pulls east, is now adding lake effect snow bands in the synoptic snow. That’s why you see the green bands (lake effect) crossing the darker blue bands (synoptic snow with the low). This typically means that someone, by the end of the day will “hit the jackpot.” Right now, Gaylord is getting some good snow since about 11am…The picture to the right is out my front window with the large flakes of Lake Effect snow dumping down on us. I’m not looking forward to shoveling since my snowblower took a dump on me again.