Smoke Creeping into the UP…08/18/21

Smoke, clouds and dewpoints. Dewpoints over 65°F(sticky)

Looking at the map this morning (I work this afternoon, and it’s easier if I do it at home.), I have a lot going on. The brown is my nephanalysis (Where the most continuous clouds are). Green are the dewpoints every 5°F, and I have everything greater than 65°F shaded. I then added that spicy brown mustard shade for the smoke, which is mostly aloft.

Last night when I did this, and then created a smoke graphic for social media (office Twitter Facebook) at the office (see my previous post) some people claimed they smelled the smoke, and it wasn’t even in the UP yesterday. Very unlikely, unless there was a fire nearby, since the surface winds are out of the south. The smoke is moving in from the north. So the smoke that is creating most of the haze today is aloft.

To show this, here are the graphics that I use from home. The first is the “True Color” from the College of DuPage weather site.

Gif animation of the True Color, RGB satellite loop found on College of DuPage weather web site.
Note the the thin layer moving toward the UP.

The swirl up the east coast is the remnants of Fred that came ashore yesterday in the panhandle of Florida. The smoke just north of the UP is best visible in the early morning as the sun’s rays are oblique to the atmosphere. It looks like the smoke is fading, but it’s not.

This is the vertically integrated smoke product from the HRRR on the NCEP website at the time I did my analysis (15z 11am EDT).

So, the smoke is creeping into the UP, and is expected to move into the rest of northern Michigan by tomorrow (Thu/08/19/21).

Smoke will Make a Return…08/17/21

So I put together a graphic about smoke returning to northern Michigan, tomorrow (08/18/21), and Thursday (08/19/21), for the office. Here’s the Graphic…

Smoke is moving into the Upper Great Lakes, and will move into E Upper Michigan by tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon, and then into N Lower Michigan by Thursday afternoon.

Smoke is Coming Back into the Area…08/16/2021

It’s been a while since I posted anything. There are a lot of reasons, but none of them are any good. Anyway, I was analyzing a map, and noticed smoke over a portion of it, and saw it on satellite. So I thought I would post some of the images, and my Area Forecast Discussion from this morning, where I talk about the smoke…

Spicy mustard is smoke, Brown is cloud.
Morning satellite loop, note the smoke over the Northern Plains, and near the western end of Lake Superior.

Here’s what I wrote in the Area Forecast Discussion this morning…

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1004 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.UPDATE… Issued at 954 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

With Fred holding up the upper air pattern, which is keeping the moisture to the east for the most part, sunny to partly cloudy skies will be the norm for the forecast. Temperatures should hold to about where they were yesterday. On the satellite images this morning, the smoke of the western/Canadian fires is being contained to the NW part of the Upper Great Lakes. The HRRR/12z Vertically Integrated Smoke product, which goes out to 12z/Wed (48 hours) shows that the smoke will be slowly making its way into Upper Michigan, enough to be seen tomorrow, and maybe in N Lower as well. Will be watching the CU production today to see if the smoke has any effects on limiting sfc temperatures, and in response, CAPE/Convection.


Strong Spring Storm…04/11/2020

I made a video earlier today about this storm. Now I see the office has issued a High Wind Watch.


* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

This is looking interesting…

What Got Me Interested in Meteorology – 03/30/2020

Recently, a meteorology student that I know, posted on twitter two videos that got him to pursue meteorology as a career…

Since I’m much older, and by coincidence he lives next door to where I grew up. His mother was my next door neighbor.

I didn’t have videos to inspire me back then, but I had events that inspired me. Those event are…

  1. August 23, 1972 (I told you I was old) – I was 6 y/o and just getting ready to start the second grade. I remember Grandma and Grandad there and the thunderstorm from that night. The next day we heard about and then searched for the storm damage. We were told it was a tornado, but the official report from Storm Data was straight line winds. We saw one trailer upside down and another destroyed. Then we followed the tree damage from M-89 (about 3 miles east of Fennville) to downtown Saugatuck.
  2. April 3-4, 1974 The Super Outbreak – As an 8 y/o, I was already intrigued by the weather from the previous event, and in the second grade, Mrs. Schra got a chalk mark-able weather map and I asked to take it home and copy the weather onto the map and present it the next day in class. However, we had visited my aunt and uncle in Texas previously. Along the way, we passed Joplin, MO, one of many towns mentioned that day from the tornadoes that struck the country. That stuck with me.
  3. The storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald November 9-10, 1975 – I still remember the storm, and hearing from TV 13 out of Grand Rapids about the wind gusts that were hurricane force. We woke up to our glass doors on our fireplace, with what looked like pictures of ghostly dancers from the ashes in the fireplace being blown around and deposited on the glass.
  4. The Winter Storm of 1977 – As a kid, we lived for snow days, with lots of wind, for the drifts that it would create. This one dumped a lot of snow and then blew it around for 3 days. We were out of school for a week. We walked about a mile and a half (as a family) into town with a sled, picked up some groceries, then walked back. When the snow plows finally came through 59th Street, the snow banks were over my dad’s head (6′ 4″)!
  5. The Blizzard of 1978 – This was a bigger storm, and were again out of school for about a week. It also came about the same time as the storm the previous year. I had gotten a Skilcraft Weather Station for my 12th birthday and had to do some major adjusting when the air pressure dropped so low.

And those are the events that shaped me into becoming a meteorologist.

Weekly Review Oct. 28 – Nov. 3, 2019

stnplot_2019102810/28 – As mentioned in the previous post, the cold front began to form waves of low pressure along it. As they moved from south to north, they would bring more moisture. In this case, more light rain and drizzle. Temperatures remain warm enough that no snow fell during the day.

One thing to note. I’ve been using the Gaylord, Michigan Co-op observation which covers the 24 hour period of 10/28 7am (the time of the map) to 10/29 7am (EST). So the observations read one day ahead, but the observation covers the daytime and night of the 28th, into the morning of the 29th.

High: 48° Low: 31° Precipitation: 0.22″ Snow: 0.0″

stnplot_2019102910/29 – We begin the march of the Alberta Clippers, which seems to really usher our winter. Of course, they aren’t the only lows we get, but they are the main low pressure systems that seem to affect us. So the clipper on the map, that is moving from NW Ontario, into Lake Superior helps to push the stalled front that has been over us for a couple of days east by the evening. High pressure then built into the region and cooled things off.
Gaylord Co-op Observation:
High: 39° Low: 30°
Precipitation: 0.02″ Snow: 0.0″


10/30 – For the beginning of the day, high pressure was in the region, but was being pushed back out from the low pressure in the Southern Plains. Again, waves of low pressure moved up the front, as the low near Texarkana moved to the NNE toward the Lower Great Lakes, and with another forming behind it. This put us into the coldest part of the storm, but we didn’t get cold enough for snow until late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning (10/31) and then we only got a few tenths of an inch.
Gaylord Co-op Observation:
High: 42° Low: 30°
Precipitation: 0.25″ Snow: 0.4″ Snow depth: T


stnplot_2019103110/31 – So the snow that we got by the morning remained as we stayed in the cold side of the low pressure as it moved up into Lake Erie, and on into New England. This brought snow across northern Michigan, mainly in northern lower Michigan. While the snow map on the morning of the 1st is snow depth, it was pretty much the snow we got from the night of the 10/31.
Gaylord Co-op Observations:
High: 32° Low: 29°
Precipitation: 0.15″ Snow: 1.0″ Snow depth: 1″2019-11-02 00_32_06-Window

stnplot_2019110111/1 – As the system from the day before left, the high pressure built into the region and lake effect snow continued, in some areas. Snow, overnight, wasn’t as big of of a deal as the warmer air during the day began to melt the 3-5″ from the night before, so that there were bare patches around the region, and roads were just wet.
Gaylord Co-op Observation:
High: 35° Low: 29°
Precipitation 0.12″ Snow: 1.0″ Snow Depth: 1″

stnplot_2019110211/2 – The rain/snow mix in the morning began to quickly diminish as the colder air began to move into the region. By the afternoon, a lot of the snow on the ground had disappeared. However, the air mass began to get colder, and the fetch over the Great Lakes began to lengthen. This lead to some decent lake effect bands that produced some significant amounts in the area, that in the office we call, “the big three” (Antrim/Otsego/Charlevoix, see the link to see why). It looks like the WNW flow, however, didn’t produce much in the way of snow in Sault Ste. Marie and that portion of Chippewa County, usually another big snow region.
Gaylord Co-op Observation:
High: 36° Low: 28° Precipitation: 0.36″ Snow: 6.2″ Snow depth: 6″

stnplot_2019110311/3 -The winds began to veer through the morning from west to northwest, and we headed into our first real lake effects snow  period. We did have some locations mix with rain, but overall, we got snow bands in eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan.
Gaylord Co-op Observation:
High: 34° Low: 26°
Precipitation: 0.13″ Snow: T Snow depth: 2″

Weekly Review Oct. 21-27, 2019

10/21 – The low pressure in the Mid-Mississippi Valley spun in place for a while, slowly moving into Lake Superior by the late evening. This kicked off periods of rain over northern Michigan. Temperatures continued to be a bit above normal. The winds with the system, however, were the strongest on the front end with the highest wind gusts being reported on 10/21.

Gaylord Co-op observations:
High: 54°
Low: 43°
Precipitation: 0.43″
Snow: 0.0″

stnplot_2019102210/22 – During the morning, the dry slot moved over the region and even cleared the sky out for a time. At 530 am, when I arrived home from my night shift, I could see the stars overhead. However, the winds were already picking up again.

The storm remained around the western part of Lake Superior, the winds picked up out of the south and west beginning an assault on the Lake Michigan shores of northern Michigan. There were numerous reports of lakeshore flooding and beach erosion.
Gaylord Co-op observations:
High: 47° Low: 38°
Precipitation: 0.03″ Snow: 0.0″

stnplot_2019102310/23 – The winds continued to gust to gale force on Lake Michigan in the morning. By the end of the day, the winds had diminished. However, the rain didn’t stop as lake effect rain showers continued into the afternoon. And just when you thought the rain was done, a wave moved up the front, and produced more rain over the region. Although, most didn’t fall in Gaylord.

Gaylord Co-Op observation:
High: 43° Low: 37°
Precipitation: 0.07″ Snow: 0.0″

stnplot_2019102410/24 – After the cold front went through the state, high pressure built in the state and the weather dried out. Temperatures warmed up a bit.
Gaylord Co-op observations:
High: 45° Low: 30°
Precipitation: 0.01″ Snow: 0.0″

stnplot_20191025 10/25 – The High pressure remained for another day, but things began to cloud up, as the next system started to move out of the Gulf Coast and north into Southern Plains. Not as warm, because of the clouds.

Gaylord Co-op observations:
High: 42° Low: 23°
Precipitation: Trace Snow: 0.0

10/26 – “Olga, ” which was probably at least a depression on the morning of the 25th, deepened and moved ashore. By the morning of the 26th was in the Lower Mississippi Valley and forecast to move north into the Upper Great Lakes. So the day started dry, on the 26th, only for things to cloud up and the rain to begin to move into northern Michigan late at night.

Gaylord Co-op observations:
High: 49° Low: 24°
Precipitation: 0.98″ Snow: 0.0″

stnplot_2019102710/27 – By the morning of the 27th, the now extratropical low was occluding and beginning to move on. High pressure built into the region and the cold front to the west began to form waves on it, as an area of low pressure at 500 mb(~18,000ft) was developing  over the Rockies. As the upper low moved out, the cold front began to slowly move to the east and into Michigan. The precipitation was mainly light rain from the morning of the 27th.
Gaylord Co-op observation:
High: 48° Low: 32°
Precipitation: 0.02″ Snow: 0.0″


Weekly Review Oct. 14-20, 2019

10/14 – The cold front moved through and high pressure began to build into the region. However, with the colder air, we had some lake effect rain and snow.
Gaylord Co-op
High: 37° Low: 33°
Precipitation: 0.31″
Snow: T

Here’s the 24 hour radar, rainfall analysis:

10/15 – The low pressure moved up into the Upper Mississippi Valley by the next morning and then began to move into the Upper Great Lakes, and northern Michigan. This brought rain back, but not before a little snow mixed in initially in the morning. Gaylord Co-op: High: 44° Low: 29° Precipitation: 0.27″ Snow: T

10/16 – Temperatures went up initially as the the warm air moved into the region on the night of the 15th, then with the low over northern Michigan, the temperatures didn’t go anywhere as the low temperatures remained in the middle 30s, and the highs remained in the lower 40s. So lake effect rain continued into the morning of the 17th.

Gaylord Co-op:
High: 43° Low: 37°
Precipitation: 0.29″
Snow: 0.0″

stnplot_20191017 10/17 – The drier air finally won out by late in the day. The rain was light as is most lake effect rains. Eventually, there were some breaks in the clouds late, and the sky cleared overnight. 

Gaylord Co-op:
High: 45° Low: 30°
Precipitation: 0.02″
Snow: 0.0″


10/18 – High pressure remained in  control but by the end of the day, the winds were picking up and thinks were warming up with the sunshine and southerly wind. 

Gaylord Co-op:
High: 51° Low: 32°
Precipitation: 0.00″
Snow: 0.0″


stnplot_2019101910/19 – As the high retreated to the east, the warm air continued to move into the region, and brought us to above normal temperatures, approaching 60°. However, the cold front moved into the region, and brought a little rain to northern Michigan. 

Gaylord Co-op:
High: 57° Low: 38°
Precipitation: 0.02″
Snow: 0.0″

stnplot_2019102010/20 – The cold front moves through northern Michigan in the morning, The front was rather dry, as little rain fall with it. When it  went through. High pressure then quickly built in and the sky cleared out. Temperatures again were above normal. 

Gaylord Co-op:

High : 61°
Low 40°
Precipitation: T
Snow: 0.0″

Weekly Review for Oct. 7-13, 2019

10/7 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

10/7 – High Pressure builds in to the Upper Great Lakes after the cold front moved to the east. There was some frost.
Gaylord airport: High 59° Low 36° precipitation 0.00″

10/8 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

10/8 – The high drifted to the east, and the winds begin to increase out of the southwest and warm temperatures (return flow).
Gaylord airport: High 62° Low 50° precipitation 0.00″

10/9 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

10/9 – The return flow continues producing a dry, warm day.
Gaylord airport: High 66° Low 41° precipitation 0.00″

10/10 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

10/10 – Winds more out of the south, temperatures continued to be warm, but we’re setting up for the next day…
Gaylord airport: High 67° Low 43° precipitation 0.00″

10/11 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

10/11 – The system moves into the Upper Great Lakes, and it rains, heavy at times. While the high temperature looks warm it cooled off slowly through the late afternoon.
Gaylord airport: High 66° Low 40° precipitation 0.54″

10/12 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

10/12 – The cold air moves into the region. Rain started over the region. There was some ice/snow late, but most of it fell on 10/13.
Gaylord airport: High 46° Low 36° precipitation 0.05″

10/13 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

10/13 – The coldest air moved through and brought mix of rain and snow, or in some cases, all snow to portions of northern Michigan.

The 2019 "Snowman"

In fact, with it being the first real snow of the season at the office, I got to make the “snowman” that we feature each year when we get our first snow…

Weekly Review for Sept. 30-Oct. 6, 2019

Something new I’m trying to do on my blog, so I can keep it going. I’m going to try and do a weekly weather review for northern Michigan. So, let’s take a look at what occurred at Gaylord (the automated weather system at the airport) over the last week from the Local Climatological Data. In the future, I’ll add the co-op site as that’s where the snow amounts come from.

                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN

30  72  51  62  10   3   0    T    M    M 11.3 18 180   M    M   7 1    28 170
 1  74  50  62  11   3   0 0.34    M    M  7.0 16 250   M    M   7 1    25 250
 2  50  45  48  -3  17   0 0.18    M    M  8.1 16  40   M    M   9 1    23  50
 3  56  44  50   0  15   0 0.22    M    0  7.7 16 280   M    M  10 1    26 280
 4  51  36  44  -6  21   0 0.01    M    M  5.1 10  50   M    M   6 1    18  50
 5  52  32  42  -8  23   0 0.03    M    M  9.2 17 150   M    M   5 1    25 170
 6  62  50  56   7   9   0 0.01    M    M 15.8 30 240   M    M   5 1    39 240
Daily 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

So on September 30th, an area of low pressure moved from the Northern Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes.

Daily 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

We didn’t get much, as the rain really didn’t kick off until after midnight on the 1st. This was the last of the truly warm weather, as the cold front that eventually moved through the region cooled us off by 20 degrees.

Light rain then continued for the next 4 or 5 days, and temperatures struggled to get to 60 degrees over most of northern Michigan.

Daily 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather
Daily 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather

Daily 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather
While we still had High Pressure, there was Lake Effect Rain…
Daily 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather
Daily 7:00 AM E.S.T. Surface Map and Station Weather